BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes says the bottom is in for Bitcoin (BTC), and that more rallies are on the way due to several macro catalysts.
In a new essay posted to his Substack, Hayes says President Trump has essentially already retreated in his tariff war after likely going too far beforehand.
[adinserter block="1"]According to Hayes, the pivot from the White House likely means that the worst of market uncertainty has already passed, and that the BTC bottom was already printed in early April below the $75,000 level.
The Maelstrom chief investment officer says that BTC will likely catch a strong bid in anticipation of the Federal Reserve injecting new liquidity to stabilize bond markets.
“Yes… I’m calling the local bottom at $74,500.
Regardless of whether you characterize Trump’s change in policy as a retreat or a savvy negotiating tactic, the result is that the administration deliberately caused a financial market avalanche, and it was so severe that they adjusted their policies a week later. Now, as the market, we know a few things. We understand what happens to bond market volatility in the worst-case scenario, we recognize the levels of volatility that trigger a change in behavior, and we are aware of the monetary levers that will be pulled to mitigate the situation.
Using this information, we as Bitcoin hodlers and crypto degen investors know that the bottom is in because the next time Trump ramps up the Tariff rhetoric or refuses to reduce tariffs on China, Bitcoin will rally in anticipation of the monetary mandarins running the money printing press at max Brrrrr levels to ensure bond market volatility remains muted.”
Hayes predicts that BTC peaks somewhere below the $200,000 level, where a rotation further out of the risk curve on crypto assets could occur.
“What about shitcoins?
Once Bitcoin breaches $110,000, the previous all-time high, it will likely surge, further increasing dominance. Maybe it just misses $200,000. Then the rotation begins from Bitcoin into shitcoins.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $93,667, up 10.7% in the last week.
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