The US dollar could suffer a major sell-off by Asian investors and exporters triggered by trade tensions, according to a pair of macroeconomic and currency strategists.
Eurizon SLJ Capital’s analysts Stephen Jen and Joana Freireat say in a new investment note that Asian investors have accumulated a massive pile of USD that could be ditched en masse if trade wars intensify and the dollar weakens, reports Bloomberg.
According to the analysts, if the US-driven trade conflict grows, a significant number of Asian investors could bring substantial capital back home or seek to bolster their defenses against a declining USD.
That, they warn, could leave the dollar facing a $2.5 trillion “avalanche” of selling.
“We suspect these dollar hoardings by Asian exporters and institutional investors may be extremely large – possibly on the order of $2.5 trillion or so – and pose sharp downside risks to the dollar vis-à-vis these Asian currencies.”
Bloomberg says its dollar gauge has dropped about 8% from a February high. Meanwhile, Asian currencies have strengthened versus the greenback in the past month.
President Trump signed an executive order in April that imposed a 10% tariff on all imported goods entering the US, with the stated aim of increasing domestic manufacturing. The President also issued a proclamation that slapped reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries.
The Trump administration says it is currently engaging with more than a dozen countries around the world to craft new trade deals.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts to discuss trade and economic issues in Switzerland this week.
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