The chief economist at banking giant Wells Fargo, Jay Bryson, is warning that America is awfully close to entering an economic recession.
In a new interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Bryson says he’s not forecasting a recession at this time, but it wouldn’t take much more negative economic data to change that outlook.
“We don’t have the economy going into recession. I would say we’re skating pretty close to one. It wouldn’t take another big shock to potentially push the economy into a recession if things are weakening later.”
He expects next year to have greater economic growth than in 2025, which is facing a slowdown from the impacts of Trump’s tariffs.
“2026 is going to be a lot better year than 2025. 2025 is, for us, more about the negative effects of tariffs. 2026 is more about some modest stimulus coming from the fiscal side, monetary ease and some deregulation.”
Bryson also predicts that in about one year, the Fed will have lowered the current rate of 425-450 basis points to about 100 basis points to stimulate the economy.
“A year from now, I still think rates are probably going to be about 100 basis points…
If the unemployment rate does start to come up later this year, which we think it will, as tariffs slow the economy down, then we think the Fed pivots and then starts to cut rates.”
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