Goldman Sachs Predicts Stock Market Rally, Says Recession ‘Not in the Base Case’ – Here’s Why

The chief US equity strategist at one of the largest financial institutions in the world says the stock market is set to rally further.

In a new interview with CNBC, Goldman Sachs executive David Kostin says “hard data” may soon override some of the “soft data” that has caused uncertainty in markets.

“Well, the equity market traditionally trades more on the soft data than on the hard data. And the expectation is that we’ve had a weak bout of soft data—maybe some of that may be turning…”

Kostin says in the short term, US equities may face downside as tariff-driven uncertainty materializes, but that by the end of the year, he’s looking at about a 10% performance on the S&P 500. He also says a recession is not in the bank’s base case forecast.

“In the next month or two, you get some hard data. It will be weaker. You get some uncertainty around the earnings. The blackout period for company share repurchases basically ends later this week or the early part of next week. In terms of the month before earnings season, companies are still able to repurchase – discretionarily – their shares.

So these are some of the variables, the signposts you’re looking at. We’re looking at them, clients are looking at them. Looking out further into next year, the economy is likely to continue to grow. We don’t have a recession in the forecast – that’s not the base case. And therefore, you’ve got earnings growth. Seven per cent this year, another 7% next year. That lifts the market to around 6500.

Sixty-five hundred is roughly up nearly 10%. That’s kind of the framework that we talk about with clients.”