Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto prices are primed for upside in the second half of 2025 amid US economic growth potential, according to a top Coinbase analyst.
David Duong, the exchange’s global head of research, says in a new monthly outlook that the “specter of recession has diminished.”
“A few months ago, we wrote that crypto performance would find its low in 1H25 and make new all-time highs in 2H25. We still believe this will be the case, despite the recent bounce for bitcoin prices in late May, which is to say that directionally, we think there could be more upside over the next 3-6 months.
In our view, the peak of the macro disruption caused by the tariff saga is now behind us. Looking ahead, risk sentiment should broadly benefit from the US government’s pivot towards more market-friendly policies with a new legislative fiscal package likely to be completed by late summer.”
Duong warns, however, that the US government’s spending bill could spike the US Treasury yield curve in the 10-30-year area. The analyst notes that deficit concerns already triggered the US 30Y bond yields to reach 5.15% in May, the highest level in two decades.
“That could tighten financial conditions more than expected, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers and potentially undermining the growth needed to justify our market optimism. If long-term yields rise too quickly, we think that this could trigger volatility in equities and credit markets, particularly if investors begin to doubt the US’s ability to sustain higher deficits without adverse consequences.”
Duong argues that such a scenario could serve as a boon for the prospects of store-of-value assets like gold and Bitcoin over altcoins.
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