A Bank of America strategist is sounding the alarm about the stock market, warning that equities are flashing signals that have often foreshadowed a 20% correction.
In an investor note, BofA’s head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, urges investors to “take profits,” warning that she’s seeing “too many red flags” in the market, reports Axios.
“Our bear market signposts — the triggers that typically precede an S&P 500 peak — suggest additional caution may be warranted. Today, 70% of our signposts are triggered, in line with the average observed in prior market peaks.”
Subramanian says the signposts are market condition gauges, including the investor assumption that companies will continue to generate profits at a strong pace in the coming years, as well as relaxed credit conditions. She also highlights that she’s seeing very high dispersion in the performance of stocks with high and low price-to-equity ratios, meaning high-valuation stocks are being rewarded, while low-valuation stocks are being left behind.
“Dispersion has been most pronounced within Tech, where the spread between the best/worst-performing quintiles’ median stock is a whopping +120 [percentage points], the highest since Feb. 2000, which reached +130 [percentage points] ahead of the market peak of March 24, 2000.”
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson says he doesn’t believe that the stock market will enter bear territory. He says, “In our view, a correction was inevitable and ultimately healthy if this bull market is going to extend into year-end, which remains our baseline.”
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