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In the chart below, we can see that this upwards trend line has been holding quite nicely for the past several months and has remained in tact since the last post.
As we have approached this larger downward trend line to the upside, we have run into resistance. Which is no surprise. Bucking a down trend typically happens slowly and after the markets chops around. Of course, a piece of news could send it up quite significantly which would, of course, null the slow move up.
You can see that after we broke the $6,550/$6,600 zone to the upside, the market has come back down to that area and used it as support. I imagine that we will chop around from this point and wouldn’t be surprised to see it dip below 6.5k a bit before getting a rebound to form more of a bottom.
It was very coincidental that our last report spoke about a move coming after the VanEck decision, and then the decision came shortly thereafter. While I was expecting the SEC to announce something this week, they decided to last week. This went accordingly, as we saw a move up in BTC shortly after the delay was announced and my post. See previous analysis here.
Bottom line: I imagine it will chop its way through the trend line by the beginning of October, and we’ll get a push to 7.5k, and then chop upwards through October.
Of course, we need to be mindful of this 6.2k area. If this breaks and the trend line/support area collapses, we will see more downside.