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‘Unpopular’ Theory on What Triggered Bitcoin and Crypto Crash Emerges

by Daily Hodl Staff
September 26, 2019
in Trading

Wall Street analyst Thomas Lee, the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat, says Bitcoin’s recent crash continues to reinforce his “unpopular” theory that BTC has long-term ties to the S&P 500.

Lee thinks Bitcoin suffers when stocks are flat.

The downturn in #bitcoin followed the risk-off selloff in #equities.

– reinforces our ‘unpopular’ opinion bitcoin does not do well in a ‘trendless macro’ environment.

– New highs needed in S&P 500 before $BTC can blast off.

Why? We think crypto is retail and thus, risk on https://t.co/y5Yo5NepPz

— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) September 25, 2019

Lee says the S&P 500 could soon be headed in a bullish direction, however. In an interview last Friday, Lee told CNBC that past market metrics indicate a “breakout” could be on the horizon.

“I think we’ve been in a nowhere market for the last 20 months and I think people generally think that’s a sign of risk and a top, but historically that’s a precursor to a big upside breakout…

We looked at 120 years of market history when market’s been 20 months flat within three% of the high. It’s happened three times – the average gain over the next two years is 51%.”

Lee initially rolled out his Bitcoin theory earlier this month, telling CNBC that a healthy S&P 500 will be a major catalyst for the next Bitcoin bull run.

“Bitcoin has stalled recently because the macro outlook has stalled. In a world without trend, Bitcoin doesn’t go up. So I think the next big catalyst is a decisive breakout in the equity markets because once equities reach an all-time high, Bitcoin becomes a risk-on asset.

We published a piece today showing our clients that if you look at the last 10 years and take the three or four best years of the S&P, they’ve all coincided with the best years for Bitcoin.

So Bitcoin does best when the S&P is up more than 15%.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
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